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11/09/2008 - Avondale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmie Johnson took a huge step closer towards capturing his record-tying third-consecutive Sprint Cup Series championship with a dominating victory in Sunday's Checker O'Reilly Auto Parts 500 at Phoenix International Raceway. Johnson led 217 of 313 laps and held off Kurt Busch in a green-white-checkered finish.
The victory was Johnson's seventh of the season and the 40th of his Sprint Cup career. He also became the first driver to win three races in a row at Phoenix.
Johnson now holds a 141-point lead over Carl Edwards, who finished fourth. If Johnson finishes 36th or better, regardless of Edwards' performance, in next weekend's season-finale at Homestead-Miami Speedway, he will clinch the title.
"I can't tell you how tough the last week has been," Johnson said. "It's just emotional regardless of where you're at if you have a big points lead or not. This is what I've worked my whole life for."
Johnson finished 15th last Sunday at Texas, his first finish outside the top-10 in this year's "Chase for the Sprint Cup." Edwards, who won at Texas, trimmed Johnson's lead to 106 points.
Now Edwards is hoping for a miracle in Homestead if he has any chance at winning the championship.
"Jimmie is just doing it, and he did a great job," Edwards said. "I think what we have to do is keep our heads up and go to Homestead. It's still possible, but not probable. I guarantee you we're just gonna go there and give it a 100% and hope something happens."
Johnson started on the pole, but Jamie McMurray passed Johnson to take the lead on the opening lap.
Sam Hornish, Jr. got loose and made contact with Elliott Sadler, causing the two to spin and hit the wall on Lap 19. Busch was the quickest off of pit road during the caution, while McMurray fell to seventh after a lengthy stop.
Johnson restarted fifth on Lap 24, but quickly moved to up to second just before the second caution came on Lap 30 when Brian Vickers cut a right rear tire and hit the wall hard.
When the race resumed on Lap 37, Johnson attempted to take the top spot from Busch, but the caution flag quickly came back out, this time for rain falling on the backstretch.
As the rain intensified by Lap 43, NASCAR stopped the race for 24 minutes.
Johnson chased down Busch and completed the pass as he took the lead for the first time on Lap 81.
Denny Hamlin and David Gilliland pitted on Lap 99 to begin a round of green- flag stops. Johnson came in two laps later and handed the lead back over to Busch, but Johnson was in front again on Lap 110.
At the half-way point, all four Hendrick Motorsports drivers were in the top- six, with Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Jeff Gordon running 1-2-3, and Casey Mears sixth.
But Gordon quickly fell back in the field as he struggled with power in his engine. By Lap 195, Johnson had put Gordon a lap down.
Gordon's engine expired on Lap 269 as he headed to the garage and called it a day.
"I felt it early on and started to lose some power," Gordon said. "I didn't pay too much attention to it, because I was still getting plenty of rpm, and the car was still running good. Then all of the sudden, it started really going down, and I felt it lose a cylinder."
Gordon is on the verge of his first winless season since his rookie year in 1993. His last victory came in October 2007 at Charlotte.
McMurray recaptured the lead on Lap 212 when he beat Johnson off of pit road during a caution. Johnson was held up during his stop.
However, Johnson quickly caught McMurray and dove underneath him to take back the top spot just after the restart on Lap 219. He led from there on out.
The sixth caution for debris on Lap 261 set up the final round of pit stops. Johnson remained the leader after he was the quickest out of the pits, while Edwards moved up to fourth, gaining three positions.
A major pileup occurred on Lap 273 when Juan Pablo Montoya bumped Casey Mears, causing Mears to spin as he collected several cars behind him. David Gilliland's car rested on top of Scott Speed's machine.
"I went through a cloud of smoke and the next thing was I started hitting something and I saw a little bit of fire," Speed said.
Scott Riggs, Bobby Labonte, Kyle Petty and Johnny Sauter were also involved in the incident. NASCAR halted the race again, this time for 18 minutes to clean up the track.
Tony Stewart and Matt Kenseth made contact and spun on Lap 305. The 10th and final caution set up a green-white-checkered finish.
Busch attempted to steal the victory from Johnson during the final two lap but came up two car lengths short of accomplishing it.
"We were pretty good today but not that good," Busch said. "What Jimmie's team is building on and what they're doing to win three championships in a row is something pretty special."
McMurray finished third, while Hamlin came in fifth.
Earnhardt, Jr., Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Jeff Burton and David Ragan completed the top-10.
<< Johnson on the brink of third consecutive title with Phoenix win
Avondale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jimmie Johnson won Sunday's Checker O'Reilly
Auto Parts 500 with a dominating performance at the Phoenix International
Raceway. Johnson, the two-time defending Sprint Cup Series champion, led 217
of 313
<< Line of Scrimmage: Coaching Carousel to Spin Out of Control
Philadelphia, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Mark your calendars - Black Monday in the
NFL is scheduled for December 29th.
As a long Christmas weekend gives way to pre-New Year's euphoria, it is
possible that roughly one-third of the league's coachin
<< Manning, Colts get first win in Pittsburgh in 40 years
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Peyton Manning threw for 240 yards and three
touchdowns, including the go-ahead score to Dominic Rhodes with 3:04 to play,
and the Indianapolis Colts hung on for a 24-20 win over the Steelers, their
first w
<< Williams and Panthers down Oakland
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - DeAngelo Williams rushed for 140 yards and a
touchdown, leading the Carolina Panthers to a 17-6 victory over the Oakland
Raiders.
Williams accounted for most of the team's offense, as the team managed
Celtics squash Pistons; Iverson flat in home debut >>
Auburn Hills, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tony Allen had 23 points off the bench,
and Ray Allen added 17 points and eight rebounds, as the Boston Celtics
defeated the Detroit Pistons, 88-76, in the teams' first meeting since last
season'
Kane, Havlat lead Chicago over Calgary >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Patrick Kane and Martin Havlat both collected a
goal and two assists, as the surging Chicago Blackhawks trumped the Calgary
Flames, 6-1, at the United Center.
Jonathan Toews and Kris Versteeg each had a
Hawks remain unbeaten by edging Thunder >>
Oklahoma City, OK (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Joe Johnson scored 25 points to help the
Atlanta Hawks remain unbeaten with an 89-85 victory over the Oklahoma City
Thunder.
Marvin Williams added 16 points for the Hawks, who at 5-0 are off to t
Oilers edge Devils >>
Newark, NJ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jeff Drouin-Deslauriers stopped 37-of-38 shots,
and the Edmonton Oilers edged the New Jersey Devils, 2-1.
Ales Hemsky had a goal and an assist, and Sheldon Souray scored the other goal
for the Oilers, who ha
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Elite 8 NCAA Tournament Betting at online sportsbook MySportsbook.com
In what should be an outstanding Saturday of March Madness betting action, the top four teams in the South and West Regions square off in what should be extremely close match-ups. Three of the four teams are coming off extremely close games on Thursday evening, only UCLA won semi comfortably over Pitt 64-55.
Ohio State is coming off their second game in a row where in all reality they should have lost. Of course that doesn’t matter now since the name of the game is “survive and advance” but as the tournament continues, they can’t afford to keep getting down to their opponents early. Kansas also avoided a scare by holding off a scrappy Southern Illinois squad. In the third thrilling game of the evening Memphis pulled off the minor upset (+3.5) despite being the higher seed to Texas A&M.
Although the spreads are fairly small for Saturday’s games, MySportsbook.com continue to bet against the underdogs. Despite OSU’s two scares, 86% of the “betting public” feels the Buckeyes (-1.5) have what it takes to make the Final Four. In fact, so much of the early money is on OSU that the line has already moved from -1 to -1.5. In the second game of the doubleheader, Kansas and their high-powered offense are 2 point favorites as they take on UCLA and their effective defense. About 63% of the early money thus far is once again backing the favorites. If those percentages stay that high, don’t be surprised if this line moves as well. If you like Kansas (-2) you might want to jump on it early.
Memphis vs. Ohio State
Both squads were involved in thrillers on Thursday evening and should come out fired up. OSU can ill afford to get behind early like they did versus their previous two opponents (Xavier, Tennessee). Greg Oden needs to stay out of foul trouble; the Buckeyes are a completely different team when he is on the court. Memphis definitely has the athleticism and length to match-up with OSU. Of Memphis’ five leading minute earners, the shortest of the bunch is 6’5”. Each team has a very effective defense; Memphis surrenders 62.3 PPG whereas the Buckeyes give up only 61 PPG. With those type of numbers, it isn’t surprising that Memphis covered the UNDER almost 69% of the time this season. As a favorite, OSU has covered the UNDER almost 66% of the time over the last three seasons. The major concern for Memphis which is magnifies this time of the year is their brutal foul shooting (62%). This season, OSU is 17-11 ATS versus teams with a winning record and 7-2 ATS in all tournament games. Memphis has been an extremely reliable cover in tournament play in recent years with a 23-8 ATS record over the last three seasons.
UCLA vs. Kansas
In the second game of Saturday’s doubleheader, UCLA will play in a role which they are very unfamiliar with that of the underdog. Only twice this season have they been getting points from the handicappers and both times they covered. Over the last three seasons UCLA is a reliable 23-7 ATS in this unfamiliar role. UCLA has not fared well against Big 12 opponents recently going 1-7 ATS since 1997. Giving up only 59.6 PPG, UCLA will definitely look to do what they do best: keep this game as low scoring as possible. Their defense has been especially tough during the tournament. UCLA opponents have been able to muster up only 48.7 PPG while shooting a combined 34.5% from the field. UCLA definitely has a challenge at hand with a Kansas team that is capable of putting points on the board in bunches. As a team, they average 79 PPG and shoot an impressive 49.6% from the field and 39.4% from beyond the arc. During the tournament Kansas has been “lights out” from the field having shot 56.2%.
With Friday -105 juice on Basketball betting, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on all of the “March Madness” action. Don’t forget to monitor who the public is backing at MySportsbook.com’s “Betting Trends”. By doing so, you have the best chance of predicting a possible line change, thus getting the best value for your wager.
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